Western Australian motorists have spent much of the year absorbing volatile fuel prices as ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to unsettle global oil markets, with Premier Roger Cook repeatedly warning drivers to brace for further uncertainty depending on how the situation unfolds. Crude oil prices spiked to multi-month highs earlier in the year following escalations in the region, flowing through directly to bowser prices across Perth and regional WA.

The volatility has served as a reminder of just how exposed Western Australian households remain to international events thousands of kilometres away, given the state’s heavy reliance on imported refined fuel and the direct link between global crude benchmarks and what motorists pay at the pump.

How the Conflict Has Hit the Bowser

FuelWatch data tracked through the year showed terminal gate prices, the key indicator of wholesale fuel costs in WA, rising sharply in step with global crude movements following flashpoints in the conflict, including reported strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. At the height of one particular escalation, Perth metropolitan fuel prices climbed close to 10 cents a litre within a fortnight.

Premier Cook noted at the time that oil price spikes of the scale being recorded had not been seen since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, underscoring the unusual scale of the market disruption facing WA motorists and businesses reliant on fuel for transport and logistics.

The State’s Emergency Response

In response to the ongoing uncertainty, the state government convened a dedicated Fuel Security Roundtable bringing together industry representatives and key sectors to assess potential impacts and coordinate WA’s response to any disruption. Premier Cook subsequently activated emergency powers allowing the government to compel fuel suppliers to provide greater visibility over supply chains, citing a lack of transparency as a hindrance to ensuring fuel reached the regions that needed it most.

The Commonwealth Government, which retains primary responsibility for monitoring national fuel supply and reserves, maintained throughout the period that no direct impact to overall fuel supply had occurred, even as some retailers experienced temporary disruptions linked to spikes in consumer demand during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Impact on Regional WA

Regional and remote parts of Western Australia, already facing higher baseline fuel costs due to transport distances, felt the volatility particularly acutely, with the state government acknowledging that ensuring reliable fuel delivery to the regions remained an ongoing challenge even as metropolitan supply generally held steady. Agricultural and mining operations, both heavily reliant on diesel for machinery and transport, also faced budgeting uncertainty as fuel costs fluctuated in step with the geopolitical situation.

What Motorists Can Expect

FuelWatch continues to advise WA motorists to monitor daily price cycles and take advantage of cheaper days within the weekly pricing pattern to minimise the impact of ongoing volatility. With global oil markets remaining sensitive to any further developments in the Middle East, the state government has indicated its emergency transparency measures and roundtable engagement with industry will remain in place for as long as the underlying geopolitical uncertainty persists.

A Reminder of Global Exposure

For a state whose economy is otherwise defined by its role as a major energy and resources exporter, the fuel price volatility of the past year has served as a pointed reminder that WA remains, in this respect, a price-taker rather than a price-setter, fully exposed to swings in global oil markets regardless of its own substantial energy production. How long the current period of uncertainty persists will depend entirely on developments in a conflict thousands of kilometres from Perth, but firmly within reach of every WA household’s fuel budget.

Small Business Feels the Squeeze

Beyond individual motorists, small businesses reliant on vehicle fleets, from tradespeople to delivery operators, have reported the fuel price volatility eating directly into already thin margins, with many unable to pass rising costs straight through to customers in a competitive market. Industry groups representing small transport and logistics operators have called for continued government monitoring of the situation, arguing that sustained fuel cost pressure compounds existing challenges around insurance, vehicle maintenance and other rising business input costs.

Consumer advocates have also urged continued vigilance around potential price gouging during periods of genuine supply uncertainty, welcoming the ACCC’s decision to investigate fuel supplier conduct as a useful check on the market even as the underlying cause of price volatility remains firmly outside Australia’s control.

Economists note that fuel price volatility of this kind also has indirect flow-on effects for broader inflation, given transport costs are embedded in the price of almost every good and service, meaning sustained pressure at the pump can ripple through household budgets well beyond the immediate cost of filling a tank.

FuelWatch has continued publishing daily price forecasts throughout the period to help motorists plan their fill-ups around the cheapest days of the weekly cycle, a small but practical way households can manage some of the volatility even while the underlying geopolitical drivers remain entirely outside their control.