Western Australian politics has been jolted by the result of the Secret Harbour by-election, where One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen secured the party’s first-ever lower house seat in the state parliament. The result, delivered on a two-party-preferred vote of close to 54 per cent, marks a significant break from the two-party dominance that has defined WA state politics for decades and will be read closely by both major parties as they plan for the next general election.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the seat’s former Labor member earlier this year, setting up a contest that quickly became a test of Labor’s grip on outer-metropolitan Perth seats it had held comfortably at the previous general election. On the night, Herdegen built an early lead in primary votes that held up through the count, finishing well ahead of both the Labor and Liberal candidates.
How the Numbers Fell
With the bulk of the vote counted on election night, Herdegen held a commanding primary vote lead over his nearest rivals, Labor’s candidate and the Liberal contender, who finished a distant second and third respectively. The margin was wide enough that the result was effectively settled well before counting concluded, a rare outcome in a seat that Labor had won convincingly at the previous state election.
Political analysts have pointed to a mix of local and statewide factors behind the swing, including cost-of-living pressure, discontent over state government decision-making in outer suburban growth corridors, and a protest-vote dynamic common in by-elections where governments are not directly at risk of losing power. Whatever the precise mix of causes, the scale of the swing away from Labor has been enough to prompt genuine soul-searching within the party about its standing in outer-metropolitan seats heading toward the next general election.
What It Means for WA Parliament
The win gives One Nation its first lower house foothold in Western Australia, a milestone the party has been chasing for years without success despite periodically strong showings in upper house and federal contests. A single seat does not change the numbers in a parliament where Labor holds a substantial majority, but it does give the party a base from which to build a broader lower house campaign at the next general election, and a sitting member able to raise issues directly in parliamentary debate rather than relying solely on upper house representation.
For the Liberal Party, finishing third in a seat it will have hoped to be competitive in adds to a difficult run of results in recent years and raises fresh questions about how the party rebuilds its vote base in outer-suburban Perth, where it has struggled to gain traction against both Labor incumbency and a resurgent minor-party vote.
Reaction and Next Steps
Labor figures have been careful in public commentary to frame the loss as a by-election phenomenon rather than a sign of a broader collapse in support, pointing to the party’s comfortable state-wide majority and historical patterns of by-election results diverging from general election outcomes. Even so, internal reviews of the result are expected, particularly around messaging on cost-of-living issues in growth corridors like Secret Harbour, where population growth has outpaced infrastructure investment in the eyes of many local residents.
One Nation, meanwhile, is expected to use the win as a springboard for a more ambitious lower house campaign at the next state election, targeting similar outer-metropolitan and regional seats where cost-of-living and infrastructure concerns are running high. Whether the by-election swing proves to be a lasting shift in WA’s political landscape or a one-off protest result will become clearer as both major parties recalibrate their strategies in the seats most exposed to a minor-party surge.
A Broader Minor-Party Trend
The Secret Harbour result also fits into a wider pattern of minor-party gains being recorded in other parts of the country recently, with One Nation and other minor parties picking up support in seats where voters feel major parties have not adequately addressed local cost-of-living and infrastructure concerns. Political scientists caution against reading too much into any single by-election, noting that protest votes against a sitting government often soften considerably once a general election puts governing responsibility back on the table, but they also acknowledge that repeated minor-party gains across multiple jurisdictions can signal a genuine and lasting shift in voter sentiment rather than a series of isolated local flukes.
For Secret Harbour residents themselves, the immediate practical change is a new local member with a direct line into parliament on issues such as road congestion, school capacity and local infrastructure funding that have featured prominently in growth-corridor community feedback in recent years. How effectively an first-term MP from a minor party can advocate for those issues from the crossbench, without the resources of a major party machine behind them, will be closely watched by constituents in the months ahead.
